Dangote’s Planned $16bn Kenya Refinery Faces Crude Supply and Funding Questions

Aliko Dangote’s proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Lamu, Kenya, is expected to cost between $15 billion and $16 billion. Dangote Group reportedly plans a groundbreaking ceremony later this month, with completion targeted for 2030. The project would be located in the LAPSSET special economic zone near Lamu’s deep-water port. It follows the launch of Dangote’s refinery in Nigeria, which faced years of cost increases and infrastructure challenges. A major concern is crude supply. Kenya does not yet produce crude oil commercially at the scale needed, while plans to source up to 600,000 barrels daily from Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan may face logistical and financing hurdles.

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