Why Agbon’s Cheap-Petrol Plan Depends on Refineries Nigeria Cannot Yet Trust

Professor Izielen Agbon’s proposal for petrol priced around ₦435 to ₦687 is built on using the real cost of Nigerian crude, local refining, transport and a reasonable profit margin rather than import-based pricing. But the proposal rests on one major condition: government-owned refineries must work efficiently and reliably. Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna would need to produce enough fuel to create competition and put pressure on private suppliers to lower prices. That remains a difficult assumption after decades of failed rehabilitation efforts. NNPC’s search for technical and equity partners for some refineries suggests that the old state-run model cannot simply continue unchanged. Supplying locally produced crude below its international value would also amount to an economic transfer, even if it is described as production-cost pricing. Nigeria needs stronger competition, more supply and viable energy alternatives before adopting another fuel-price intervention.

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