Osun 2026: Five Key Battlegrounds Adeleke Must Hold Against the APC

Governor Ademola Adeleke’s path to retaining Osun State may depend less on winning every area and more on protecting the margins that secured his 2022 victory. Ede North and South remain his strongest electoral base, with an estimated 28,000-vote advantage in 2022. Osogbo is also crucial because its support helped offset the APC’s strength in Boripe and other parts of Osun Central. In Ijesaland, Adeleke must prevent defections from translating into voter losses. He also needs to limit the APC’s advantage across the four Ife LGAs, where the party already held an estimated 8,600-vote lead. The western corridor of Irewole, Isokan and Ayedaade presents another challenge, particularly with APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji’s ties to the axis. If Adeleke loses ground in two or three of these key areas, his 28,344-vote statewide margin from 2022 could disappear quickly.

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