Why Many Nigerians Already Expect Tinubu to Win in 2027

I fear the 2027 presidential election could be Nigeria’s most lacklustre yet. President Bola Tinubu may enter the race as the favourite, not because Nigerians are overwhelmingly satisfied, but because many people already expect the outcome long before Election Day. Voter turnout has fallen sharply, from 53.7% in 2011 to 26.7% in 2023. This points to growing apathy, distrust and a belief that ordinary votes may not matter. With high living costs, unemployment, insecurity and declining purchasing power, many Nigerians are focused on survival or looking for ways to relocate abroad. Under normal circumstances, this level of frustration should create a strong electoral challenge for an incumbent. But weak institutions, concerns about election credibility and an opposition that has yet to build a united, credible coalition may give Tinubu a major advantage. Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have not demonstrated the strategic cooperation needed to seriously challenge the ruling party. From the people I have spoken to, the dominant mood is not excitement but resignation. Elections are meant to give citizens hope that change is possible. If Nigerians believe the result is already settled, the bigger question is why they would feel motivated to vote at all.

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