Nigeria’s Power Reset: What Is Working, What Is Still a Promise
Nigeria is pursuing its biggest electricity-sector overhaul since privatisation. Debt settlements, new meters and state electricity markets are moving forward, while the government targets 6,500MW of wheeled power by the end of 2026 and 8,000MW by 2027. The progress is real but uneven. The power-sector debt programme has issued major bonds to GenCos, installed meters have passed 7 million, and 15 states had completed regulatory handover from NERC by February 2026. Several other states have passed electricity laws but are yet to fully run their own markets. The main problem remains the gap between installed capacity and the electricity people receive. Nigeria has about 13,000MW of installed capacity, but available generation has been far lower and peak delivery is around 5,000MW. DisCos also face poor collections, losses and infrastructure gaps, leaving many consumers with estimated bills and unreliable supply. My take: the debt clean-up, metering drive and state reforms are achievable if they continue. Sustaining 6,500MW and then 8,000MW will require reliable gas, stronger transmission and better DisCo performance. The 30,000MW target by 2030 looks unrealistic on the current timeline; households and businesses should judge the reforms by fewer outages, not only higher figures on paper.
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