Why Economic Hardship Has Not Yet Triggered an APC Collapse Ahead of 2027

Many opposition supporters assume the political equation is simple: Nigerians are suffering, Nigerians are angry, and they will therefore vote against the APC in 2027. But economic hardship has not automatically translated into a visible collapse of the ruling party. Since May 2023, petrol prices, food costs and transport fares have risen sharply, while the naira has lost substantial value. Yet the APC has continued to record electoral victories and significant vote totals in recent elections. Major protests and nationwide industrial actions have also not developed into sustained, broad-based disruption. This does not mean Nigerians are satisfied with the economy. It suggests that suffering and electoral rejection are not the same. Voters must first decide who is responsible for their pain, whether the reforms were necessary, whether conditions are improving, and whether they trust an alternative party to perform better. The key question for the opposition is not only whether Nigerians are hurting, but whether it can earn their trust. Without a credible alternative, hardship may fuel anger without producing a decisive transfer of votes in 2027.

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