Nigeria’s Economic Pain Did Not Start With Tinubu, but His Reforms Must Deliver Relief
Nigeria’s economic crisis did not begin in 2023. The country entered the Tinubu administration with years of weak revenue, rising debt, petrol subsidy costs, foreign-exchange distortions, inflation and declining purchasing power. Jonathan’s government faced criticism over corruption, insecurity, unemployment, fuel shortages and poor economic management. Buhari promised change, but his tenure included the 2016 recession, a weaker naira, difficult access to foreign exchange, rising inflation and heavier debt-service pressures. COVID-19 and oil-price shocks worsened the situation, but policy choices also mattered. Tinubu removed the petrol subsidy and introduced major foreign-exchange reforms. The policies may have been economically necessary, but they brought immediate hardship through higher fuel, transport, food, rent and electricity costs. Recent economic indicators suggest some macroeconomic improvement, including lower inflation than the 2024 peak and stronger external buffers, but most Nigerians are still waiting to feel relief. Tinubu should ultimately be judged by whether food becomes affordable, the naira stabilises, real wages and jobs improve, businesses survive, electricity becomes more reliable and poverty falls. Economic reform cannot be called successful if ordinary Nigerians remain unable to afford basic needs.
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