Nigeria’s Estimated ₦4.78tn Oil Windfall Raises Questions Over Public Benefits

Nigeria may have earned about $3.6 billion, or ₦4.78 trillion, in additional gross oil revenue over six months as crude prices rose above the $75 per-barrel benchmark in the 2026 budget. The estimate assumes an average price of $97 per barrel and average crude and condensate production of 1.6 million barrels daily. However, output remained below the budget target of 1.84 million barrels per day, while crude-backed debt arrangements may reduce the amount available to government. The estimate also represents gross receipts, not necessarily cash available for new spending. Experts say the key issue is whether the extra revenue is being transparently accounted for, used to reduce borrowing, saved through existing fiscal buffers, or invested in transport, energy and production infrastructure. Many households are still facing higher fuel, transport and food costs despite the rise in oil prices.

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