The ₦300 Petrol and ₦300/$ Promise: A Satirical Look at Its Likely Consequences

If I were a presidential candidate challenging Tinubu, I could promise to restore petrol to ₦300 per litre and peg the naira at ₦300 to the dollar. It would sound simple: bring back subsidy, use the reserves built by the current government to defend the currency, and declare that subsidy is back on inauguration day. There would be jubilation at first. But fuel marketers would struggle to sell at the official price, queues would return, and black-market petrol could cost far more. I could set up task forces and even join people in fuel queues, but that would not create enough dollars or petrol at the controlled prices. Over time, reserves would dry up and the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates would widen. Government revenue from crude sales would fall sharply in naira terms, while cheap imports would hurt local manufacturers, reduce tax income, and threaten jobs. Salaries, construction projects and public services could suffer. By the end of a four-year term, the next government would be left to confront fuel scarcity, dollar shortages, closed industries and public anger. Leadership may not be rocket science, but economic consequences do not disappear because a campaign promise sounds attractive.

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