2027 Presidential Election: My Early State-by-State Projection for Obi, Tinubu and Atiku

My current projection suggests that the 2027 presidential election is still wide open. I see Peter Obi retaining strong support in the South-East, the FCT and parts of the South-South and North-Central, while Bola Tinubu’s strongest base remains the South-West and APC-controlled states. I expect several northern and North-Central states to be decisive. Kaduna, Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, Borno, Zamfara and Kebbi could play a major role in determining the final outcome. Atiku Abubakar could also remain competitive in parts of the North-East and North-West. These are personal projections based on current political structures, voter demographics and alliance assumptions. They are not official results or confirmed forecasts, and the political landscape can change significantly before 2027.

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