Could Osun State Survive Financially If It Became Independent?

Could a Nigerian state remain financially viable if it were suddenly required to operate as an independent country? Singapore’s unplanned separation from Malaysia in 1965 is used here as a comparison. Singapore had a population similar to Osun State’s, yet developed into a successful independent economy. Using Osun as an example, the argument is that residents would continue to work, run businesses and produce goods even if federal allocations stopped. The new state government would also inherit federal assets within its borders, including schools, hospitals, security formations and research institutions. It could retain revenue currently collected federally, such as VAT and company income tax. The estimates place Osun’s annual needs at about ₦500 billion, against initial revenues of roughly ₦220 billion from VAT, company tax, mining and internally generated revenue. Additional income could come from property rates, advertising fees, personal income tax and agricultural produce. The argument is that better tax administration could reduce the projected funding gap to a manageable level. Enugu’s recent rise in internally generated revenue is cited as evidence that states can improve their finances. The central question is whether Nigerian states and other political constituencies are assessing their true economic viability and preparing for a possible “Singapore mandate.”

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