Could a Sovereign Lower Niger State Survive? The Economic Promise and Political Risks
A sovereign Lower Niger state made up of the South-East and South-South would have major economic assets. These include large oil and gas reserves, deep-water ports in Onne, Port Harcourt, Warri and Calabar, and commercial centres such as Onitsha, Nnewi and Aba. The proposed state could also draw on a strong entrepreneurial culture, skilled professionals and diaspora networks. Its ports and energy resources could support trade, industry and public revenue if managed effectively. However, political unity would be difficult. Ijaw, Ogoni, Efik, Ibibio, Urhobo and Itsekiri communities may seek firm protections against domination by any larger ethnic bloc. Disputes over oil ownership, revenue sharing and political representation could also create serious internal tensions. Nigeria’s constitutional position, likely federal resistance and the African Union’s preference for existing borders would make international recognition difficult. The debate is therefore not only about whether the region has resources, but whether it can build trust, security and a workable political settlement.
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