2027: Should Atiku or Obi Step Down to Strengthen the Opposition?

INEC is expected to publish the final list of candidates for the January 16, 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections on September 12. Yet Atiku Abubakar of the ADC and Peter Obi of the NDC remain on separate paths, raising doubts about whether the opposition can defeat President Bola Tinubu while divided. Tinubu faces public dissatisfaction over his administration, but incumbency gives him major advantages. The APC controls a broad political structure, has 31 governors and retains access to the visibility and influence of the federal government. A fragmented opposition could make his re-election bid easier. Obi’s supporters argue that Atiku should step aside because the presidency should remain in the South until 2031, while Obi has pledged to serve one term. Atiku’s supporters counter that he cannot reasonably wait until 2031 due to his age. They also argue that Atiku stayed in the coalition that produced the ADC and won its primary, while Obi joined the NDC. For now, neither candidate appears willing to sacrifice his ambition. As the election approaches, however, political calculations may change. The key question is whether either Atiku or Obi will eventually put opposition unity ahead of a personal presidential bid.

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