Why Is Petrol Selling Above ₦1,300 When Crude Price Math Suggests ₦941?

Based on current crude oil prices, petrol should not cost more than about ₦950 per litre, even after subsidy removal. Using Brent crude at about $90 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,330 to the dollar, one barrel costs roughly ₦119,700. Since a barrel contains 159 litres, the crude cost works out to about ₦752 per litre. If crude accounts for 80% of the final pump price, as stated by the downstream regulator, the remaining 20% should cover refining, transport, depot charges, margins and other costs. That puts the estimated pump price at around ₦941 per litre. So what explains the extra ₦400 pushing petrol prices towards ₦1,300 per litre?

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