Can Atiku’s Proposed Petrol Subsidy Be Funded? A Look at the Numbers

NMDPRA data shows that Nigeria’s PMS consumption fell to 35.7 million litres daily in July 2026, while total daily supply stood at 45.5 million litres. Domestic supply declined, although Dangote Refinery reportedly averaged 25.9 million litres of daily production and helped lift the national stock buffer to 22.4 days. Mr Atiku proposes reducing petrol prices by offering discounted crude to local refineries. But I do not see how this avoids a major fiscal cost. If petrol is reduced from about ₦1,250 per litre to roughly ₦600, the government would still absorb an estimated ₦650 per litre. Using 45.5 million litres of daily supply, that is about ₦29.6 billion per day, ₦887.3 billion per month, and ₦10.65 trillion annually. This could consume around 14% of the 2026 budget, before adding debt-service costs of about ₦15.8 trillion. With the 2026 budget already projected to run a ₦23.85 trillion deficit, how will the government fund salaries, infrastructure, security and other obligations while sustaining this subsidy? We need a clear explanation of the numbers and funding source.

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