Tinubu’s Long Game: Can His Lagos Model Endure at the Federal Level?
When I studied public policy at Johns Hopkins University, Lagos featured in a case study on urban transformation between 1999 and 2012. The focus was on how Bola Tinubu’s administration approached a city facing poor infrastructure, traffic congestion, weak revenue collection, waste management problems and an overstretched public service. The case study and a 2009 university interview highlighted a governing approach centred on reforming revenue collection, digitising public administration, removing ghost workers, improving accountability and building systems that could outlive one administration. Tinubu argued that lasting reform begins with understanding problems, breaking them into manageable parts and assembling capable people to implement solutions. Nigeria is far more complex than Lagos, but I believe the central question remains relevant: can the institutional logic credited to the Lagos reforms be replicated at the federal level? Beyond individual projects and political arguments, the true test will be whether stronger institutions, competent public servants, transparent systems and sustainable infrastructure remain after Tinubu leaves office. Reform often creates resistance from those who benefit from inefficiency, patronage and opacity. For me, that makes the key question less about whether any leader is a hero or villain, and more about what works, what endures and what Tinubu will ultimately leave behind.
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