Nigeria’s H1 2026 Economy: Stronger Indicators, but Risks Remain for H2

Nigeria began 2026 with GDP growth of 3.89% in the first quarter, supported mainly by services, agriculture and industry. Services accounted for 57.73% of real output, while the non-oil sector contributed 96.08% of real GDP. Inflation eased to 15.91% in June, while food inflation fell to 17.52%. The naira has also strengthened, trading near ₦1,383 per dollar in the official market by mid-July. The gap between official and parallel-market rates narrowed to about 3%. Foreign capital inflows rose to $10.37 billion in Q1, but about 95% was portfolio investment, while long-term direct investment remained low. Oil output rose to about 1.76 million barrels per day including condensate, while Q1 merchandise trade produced a ₦7.54 trillion surplus. The stock market also recorded major gains in the first half of the year. However, export earnings remain heavily tied to crude oil and commodities, and much of the capital entering the country is vulnerable to sudden reversals. I believe the macroeconomic direction is more positive than it has been in years. Still, I doubt that growth of roughly 4% can deliver a $1 trillion economy by 2030 without sustained double-digit expansion, deeper productive investment and stronger value-added exports.

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