Why Dele Momodu’s 2027 Electoral Formula Is Facing Fresh Scrutiny

Dele Momodu’s comments on Arise News about Atiku Abubakar’s chances in 2027 drew repeated challenges from anchor Charles Aniagolu. Aniagolu questioned Momodu’s comparison of President Tinubu’s administration to the Abacha era and asked for evidence behind claims about public trust in INEC. The central issue was Momodu’s confidence that Atiku could secure 25% of votes across the 19 northern states. The same electoral calculation featured prominently before the 2023 election, when Atiku lost to Tinubu despite contesting on the PDP platform with a broader nationwide structure. The argument is that Atiku’s path may be harder in 2027 if he contests under the ADC without the PDP’s former network of governors and party machinery. It also raises questions about party zoning, internal democracy and whether the 2023 strategy can succeed under weaker political conditions.

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