Can Dangote Refinery Shares Reach ₦1,000 Within Five Years?

I remain bullish on Dangote Refinery over the long term, although I would not buy at the proposed ₦525 IPO price. I expect significant volatility after listing. A limited number of publicly available shares and strong investor demand could push the price up early, but the initial excitement may cool. My preferred accumulation range is ₦200–₦300, while ₦300–₦350 could become attractive depending on the company’s earnings. My five-year estimate is about ₦1,000 per share. If the refinery expands towards 1.4 million barrels per day and grows its earnings, a valuation near $100 billion could imply roughly ₦1,087 per share at the current share count. My 10-year bull case is above ₦2,000 per share, provided the company builds a much larger refining and distribution business across Africa. These are scenarios, not guarantees, and execution remains the key risk.

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