2027 Election Projection: Tinubu, Obi and Atiku’s Possible State-by-State Paths

Based on the 2023 election results, recent defections, views on subsidy removal, political influence, economic conditions, and ethnic and religious sentiments, I am projecting possible outcomes for the leading candidates in 2027. I expect NDC/Obi to lead in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Edo, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, Nasarawa and Plateau. ADC/Atiku may lead in Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto and Zamfara. APC/Tinubu may lead in Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Akwa Ibom. Key battlegrounds could include the FCT, Benue, Borno, Taraba, Kano, Rivers and Lagos. I also expect Seyi Makinde’s political calculations in Oyo State to weaken APC’s chances there, especially as he seeks to protect National Assembly seats for his loyalists. Please share your counter-projections objectively and without insults.

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