Subsidy Removal: The Question Tinubu Must Answer Before 2027

Nigeria has endured the pain of petrol subsidy removal since 2023: higher transport fares, more expensive food and reduced household incomes. The central question is no longer whether subsidy removal was fiscally necessary, but what Nigerians received in return for the sacrifice. Atiku Abubakar’s proposal to support domestic refining rather than imported petrol deserves scrutiny on its details. A model that guarantees crude supply to qualifying local refineries, tracks products and limits fiscal exposure could help lower costs and reduce import dependence. However, domestic refining will only benefit consumers if savings from the refinery gate actually reach filling stations. The Federal Government’s reform scorecard raises harder questions. It reports N20.4 trillion in incremental resources between June 2023 and December 2025, while only small portions went to social welfare and education. Much of the fiscal space was absorbed by wages, allowances and debt servicing. Increased FAAC allocations do not by themselves prove that productive investment or household relief has followed. Nigeria may be improving some macroeconomic indicators, but households need visible results: reliable power, better roads, stronger schools, jobs and lower living costs. The Tinubu administration must show what subsidy removal and continued borrowing have built. Without tangible outcomes, Nigerians will continue asking whether the journey was worth the burden.

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