MoneyCentral Sets ₦1,020 Target for Dangote Refinery Shares, Sees 94% Upside

MoneyCentral has initiated coverage of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals with a Buy rating and a 12-month target price of ₦1,020 per share. The target represents a potential 94.3% gain from the ₦525 IPO offer price. The valuation is based on the refinery’s shift to stable 700,000-barrels-per-day operations, strong first-half 2026 earnings and plans to double capacity to about 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029. The refinery reported ₦19.15 trillion in revenue and ₦2.51 trillion profit after tax in the first six months of 2026. MoneyCentral used a blended approach based on forward earnings, EV/EBITDA and the potential value of the planned expansion. The report notes key risks, including weaker refining margins, crude supply constraints, FX exposure, funding needs and possible delays to the expansion project. This is a research valuation, not investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities.

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