Insecurity as an Electoral Weapon: From Jonathan to Tinubu

In Nigerian politics, spikes in violence often follow a predictable election timetable. Kidnappings, banditry and orchestrated attacks are used to undermine public confidence in the sitting president and boost the opposition. History shows this playbook at work. Under President Jonathan, Boko Haram’s attacks peaked as he sought re-election. The resulting fear and international outrage framed him as weak and helped unseat him in 2015. Today, similar patterns of high-profile kidnappings and staged violence fuel social media campaigns against President Tinubu. These incidents appear too strategic to be mere criminality. Ransom videos and targeted strikes often coincide with party primaries and major political milestones. Sponsors of these campaigns benefit by shifting the national conversation to security failures, fracturing support bases and stoking ethnic and religious tensions. Breaking this cycle requires voters to see insecurity not only as a policy issue but as a political weapon. Real security reforms will only gain traction when Nigerians refuse to punish victims and reward those who profit from chaos.

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