Dangote Refinery IPO: What Investors Are Really Paying for at ₦525

Dangote Refinery’s proposed share sale asks investors to look beyond its current performance. The company reported a loss of about $476 million in 2025, but recorded roughly $1.82 billion profit on more than $13 billion revenue in the first half of 2026 as production rose and global refining margins strengthened. At ₦525 per share, investors are also pricing in future expansion. The refinery operates at about 700,000 barrels per day and plans to reach 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029. That expansion is expected to cost about $14.3 billion, with funding expected from cash flow and financing arrangements alongside the IPO proceeds. Analysts value the business differently because they make different assumptions about future production, refining margins, financing and earnings. GTI Research estimates a probability-weighted fair value of about ₦493 per share, while CardinalStone and Chapel Hill Denham place the company’s equity value much higher. The key question is whether future growth and healthy margins will justify the current price. Investors should understand the risks and long-term assumptions behind the offer before making a decision.

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