Can Nigeria Afford Atiku Abubakar’s Proposed Return to Fuel Subsidy?

Atiku Abubakar’s promise to reverse fuel subsidy removal has revived a major national debate. While many Nigerians are frustrated by rising living costs, I do not believe any politician’s promise should be accepted without asking whether it is financially sustainable. In my view, restoring subsidy in the next five years would be difficult. Government wage bills are rising, debt obligations remain heavy, and a large subsidy could reduce funds available for roads, power, health and other infrastructure. If petrol imports continue, subsidy payments could also put further pressure on foreign reserves and the naira. Subsidy removal and related reforms have also improved incentives for investment in oil production. Reversing them could weaken investor confidence. More importantly, Nigeria has previously seen subsidy payments abused through inflated claims and fuel smuggling. Without stronger institutions, functional refineries and effective border controls, a return to the old model could recreate the same fraud. I am also cautious about Atiku’s long record in Nigeria’s political establishment. His allegations against the current administration, including claims about contracts, crude-forward sales and unaccounted revenue, should be investigated and proven. However, Nigerians should apply the same scrutiny to every presidential contender. The real question is not whether subsidy sounds appealing, but whether Nigeria can fund it transparently and ensure ordinary citizens—not political patrons—benefit from it.

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