Fact-Checking Tinubu’s Borrowing: Why I Estimate It at ₦42 Trillion
I keep seeing claims that President Tinubu has borrowed ₦80 trillion, ₦100 trillion or more since May 2023. I have reviewed the available debt records and estimate net Federal Government borrowing at about ₦42 trillion through March 2026. Simply subtracting the debt Tinubu inherited from today’s total public debt can be misleading. Nigeria’s debt figures include states and the FCT, while the naira value of existing dollar debts rose sharply after exchange-rate changes. Old Ways and Means obligations from the previous administration and refinancing also affect the headline debt stock. Using an adjusted Finance Ministry methodology, I estimate net FGN borrowing at ₦5.65 trillion from June to December 2023, ₦15.20 trillion in 2024 and ₦18.89 trillion in 2025. With provisional movement in the first quarter of 2026, the total is roughly ₦42 trillion. That is still a huge sum, and Nigerians deserve to know what it has delivered. The real debate should now focus on the roads, rail, power, education, healthcare, housing and other projects funded while this debt was accumulated.
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