Can Tinubu Turn 29% Into 70–80% in Kaduna? Examining Uba Sani’s Claim
Kaduna Governor Uba Sani predicts President Bola Tinubu could win 70–80% of votes in Kaduna in 2027. Tinubu received 399,293 votes, or 29.36% of valid votes, in the 2023 presidential election and won only two of the state’s 23 LGAs. The APC has since performed better in post-2023 elections. It won three of five rerun and by-election contests in 2024, then swept three by-elections in 2025, including Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency. These results suggest the party has strengthened its local structure. However, the opposition has also changed. Two former PDP senators are now in the ADC alongside other federal lawmakers, while Southern Kaduna politicians have moved to the APC, citing development projects and inclusion. Improved security cooperation, interfaith engagement and federal projects may also influence voting patterns. The evidence points to APC growth in Kaduna, but defections are not automatic votes. The 70–80% projection remains a bold target that will ultimately be tested at the ballot box.
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