Nigeria’s War Economy: Insecurity, Food Inflation and the 2027 State Police Dilemma

Nigeria’s security crisis has evolved into a parallel political economy. What started as an insurgency has become a decentralized criminal enterprise spanning kidnapping, illegal taxation, arms trafficking and territorial extortion. This insecurity now drives 40% food inflation, collapses rural productivity and raises subnational political risk. The crisis is as much economic as it is humanitarian. The debate on creating State Police highlights frustration with a centralized security system. Yet devolving policing power ahead of the 2027 elections risks governors weaponizing local forces for political gain. Full data analysis and charts available on a subscription newsletter.

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