Kwankwaso’s Vice-Presidential Gamble: A Risk to His 2027 and 2031 Ambitions

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has taken several bold political steps in his career, but accepting the vice-presidential slot on a Peter Obi ticket could be his riskiest move yet. In 2022, he rejected a similar arrangement and argued that Obi would struggle to win enough support in the core North. Four years later, he has accepted the role he once declined. The article argues that the 2027 electoral arithmetic is becoming harder for Kwankwaso. Senator Rufa'i Hanga's reported exit is presented as more than a routine defection, reflecting concerns about Kwankwaso's declining influence in Kano and his limited performance outside the state in the 2023 election. With the APC strengthening its political structures in Kano, Kwankwaso faces a difficult path. A possible succession understanding for 2031 would also carry no guarantees, as Nigerian political alliances can shift quickly. The move may ultimately determine whether he remains a major presidential contender or becomes a supporting figure in another candidate's ambition.

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