Tinubu’s Northern Gamble: From Victory to Disillusionment

In the 2023 presidential race, Bola Tinubu’s success owed much to strategic alliances with Northern power brokers like Aliyu Wamakko, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Abdullahi Ganduje and Nasir El-Rufai. These relationships turned into real political clout, helping him overcome internal resistance and secure vital votes. After the election, many of those same allies feel sidelined. Cabinet slots and key posts largely went to others, while ministries in the North received only a fraction of requested funds. Parallel debates over perceived bias in national security narratives and an emerging “Christian genocide” discussion have further strained trust. Persistent insecurity and slow progress on major infrastructure projects in the North contrast sharply with massive funding for initiatives in the South-West. Clerics who once championed Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket are increasingly critical. As the next cycle nears, the question is no longer how he won the North, but whether he can rebuild or will steadily lose this crucial support base.

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