Prolonged Iran Conflict Could Push Oil Prices Above $200 a Barrel

A leading global asset manager warns that Brent crude could top $200 a barrel if the Iran war continues into June. The firm lays out two scenarios. If the conflict ends by March, prices would retreat but stay higher than pre-war levels. If fighting drags on to June, the oil shock could eclipse those of the 1970s or the first Gulf Wars. With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, about 13% of global output may be offline by March. Strategic reserves can offer temporary relief, but an extended blockade would force prices sharply higher to curb demand. A longer conflict would likely spark talks of global recession and keep markets volatile amid uncertainty over what “victory” in the Gulf looks like.

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