Estimating Nigeria’s Population Using NIN Data and a Reference State

With no recent census in Nigeria, digital records like NIN registrations can help estimate state populations. By choosing a state with a widely accepted figure—Lagos at about 21 million—and comparing its NIN count (12 million) to another state’s NIN registrations, you can scale that reference to estimate the second state’s population. For example, Osun’s 2.3 million NIN registrations represent roughly one-fifth of Lagos’s NIN total. If Lagos is 21 million people, Osun would be around 4.5 million. Adjusting Lagos’s assumed population to 23 million raises Osun’s estimate proportionally. You can apply this method to each state and sum the results to approximate Nigeria’s total population. Supplementing NIN data with other digital sources—voter rolls or internet subscriber figures—can validate and refine your estimates.

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