US Intel: Iran’s Nuclear Breakout Timeline Still One Year Despite Recent Strikes

U.S. intelligence reports say Iran’s nuclear weapon development timeline remains at about one year. This holds true even after two months of U.S. and Israeli military actions that began on February 28. Recent strikes by Israel hit some uranium facilities, while U.S. attacks focused on conventional military targets. Experts note Iran’s stock of highly enriched uranium is likely safe in deep underground sites that resist conventional bombs. Analysts recall that the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer set Iran’s breakout clock back to roughly a year by hitting key sites at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. The assassination of top nuclear scientists has also complicated Tehran’s weaponisation efforts. Despite an April 7 truce, tensions over Iran’s moves in the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel a global energy crisis. U.S. officials, including the White House, insist their goal remains to prevent Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.

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