Imported Petrol 12% Cheaper Than Dangote Fuel—World Bank Warns of 3.1% Inflation Spike

The World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update finds that imported petrol costs about 12% less than fuel from the Dangote refinery. This price gap reflects distortions in domestic pricing amid rising global crude oil prices. The report warns that higher fuel costs could add roughly 3.1 percentage points to Nigeria’s headline inflation. Energy-related components like transport (around 10.1% of the CPI) mean fuel shocks quickly spread to other prices, including food and logistics. Amid the Middle East conflict, oil prices near $80 per barrel could worsen these inflationary pressures. World Bank Country Director Mathew Verghis noted that while macroeconomic reforms are improving fundamentals, higher global energy and shipping costs pose new risks. Lead Economist Fiseha Haile highlighted gains in reserves and a unified exchange rate, but cautioned about fiscal pressures and tighter global financing. She projects 4.2% growth over 2026–28, conditional on containing inflation.

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