What Could a US–Iran Peace Deal Look Like?
This post explores a possible negotiation framework between the United States and Iran. Iran claims losses of $150–250 billion from the conflict and seeks reparations. It currently charges about $2 million per 2 million-barrel tanker—roughly $1 per barrel—which has little effect on global pump prices. Under a Trump-mediated plan, Iran would suspend uranium enrichment for 20 years and end support for regional militias in Yemen, Palestine and Lebanon. The US and Iran would conduct joint patrols in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting sanctions and allowing transit fees for tanker shipments. The deal could favor both sides while reducing threats to Israel. Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq and Oman—might enjoy two decades of regional stability without Iranian proxy pressures.
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