World Bank Cuts Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Outlook to 4.1% Amid Structural Hurdles

The World Bank has cut Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1%, down from 4.4% in its October 2025 outlook. It also trimmed the 2027 projection to 4.2% and set the 2028 forecast at 4.3%. In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” the bank noted that macroeconomic stability is improving and investment is rebounding. But structural bottlenecks continue to hold back faster expansion. Growth will be driven by services—particularly ICT, finance and real estate—while agriculture and industry expand more slowly. Inflation is expected to ease from 23% in 2025 to 14.9% next year and to 10.7% by 2028 as policy tightening and supply conditions improve. Despite these gains, high fuel costs and global conflicts keep poverty levels elevated. Other risks include commodity price swings, tighter global financial conditions, security challenges and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, growth holds at 4.1% for 2026, though several major economies saw their forecasts downgraded.

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